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科技领涨迎反弹;市场正蓄势等待CPI催化剂

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年6月9日

周一市场回顾:科技股反弹,道指表现滞后

在上周五非农数据(NFP)引发强烈的抛售潮后,美国三大股指于周一迎来超跌反弹。盘面表现呈现两极分化,资金明显青睐成长股与科技板块。

以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数领涨市场,涨幅达 1.99%;标普500指数则上涨 0.7%,收报 7,405 点。相反,蓝筹股道琼斯工业平均指数表现滞后,由于周期性板块持续承压,道指逆市下跌 0.2%。

总体而言,周一整体大盘走势相对平淡。然而,随着市场参与者开始为周三至关重要的美国CPI通胀数据进行仓位部署,预计周二市场将逐步蓄势,积累整体动能。

今日市场视角:CPI催化剂来临前的技术面聚焦

在上周五市场经历剧烈波动以及周一的修正性平淡整合后,预计今日市场将主要围绕技术面走势展开。

由于今日没有重大的宏观经济数据公布,价格走势很可能围绕关键的结构性水平进行演绎。周三即将迎来重磅根本面数据的冲击,在此之前的交易日通常是市场蓄势的阶段。交易员应密切关注短期的技术面边界,以捕捉日内的破位或遇阻信号。

技术面展望:今日关注重点?

美元与美股指数

美元指数(USDX)及美国主要股指的前景与昨天的分析保持一致。

美元指数目前继续在 100 点关口附近保持强劲的看涨势头;而纳斯达克100指数近期的任何短期反弹,在跌破 30,000 点关键心理关口后,仍应被视为整体修正性拉回的一部分。

欲了解更多关于美元与美股的深度解读,请参阅我们昨天的分析报告

英镑兑美元(GBPUSD)展望

英镑昨日迎来轻微的技术性反弹,但整体结构依旧维持看跌。交易员需密切留意 1.3380 – 1.3400 的阻力区域。

GBPUSD,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

GBPUSD,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

只要价格受制于该阻力区域下方,整体的下行趋势便依然有效,任何日内的走高都应被视为逢高做空的机会。虽然当前的 1.3310 水平构成了短期的即时支撑,但更主要的结构性支撑位于 1.3200 附近,这也为长线空头提供了进一步下行延伸的空间。

欧元兑美元(EURUSD)展望

与此同时,转向欧洲市场的另一侧,受美元全线走强的压制,欧元依然深陷看跌泥潭。目前,该货币对正在测试 1.1500 这一主要的结构性支撑关口。

EURUSD,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

同样地,上方 1.1600 – 1.1580 的阻力区域仍是确认整体看跌形态的关键天花板。

尽管市场对欧洲央行(ECB)加息的预期可能会为欧元带来一些暂时性的支撑,但其真正的后市走向将取决于本周四欧洲央行议息会议所释出的前瞻性指引。在此阶段,我们对欧元兑美元依然持谨慎看跌的态度。

黄金展望

在近期跌破关键结构后,黄金目前继续在看跌区域内运行。

XAUUSD,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAUUSD,4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

4,400 关口现已转换为主要的心理与技术性阻力区域。对于贵金属而言,主流的交易策略依旧是“逢高做空”,即在日内任何反弹走高时寻找做空机会,因为卖方仍牢牢掌控着价格的主导权。

从技术层面上看,除非黄金能重新夺回 4,400 关口并使其再次转换为结构性支撑,否则其前景将继续维持看跌。

今日核心关注领域

  • 技术面整合边界:由于今日经济日历较为清淡,需密切跟踪各大主要货币对及股指是否能企稳在各自的关键支撑与阻力区域内,或留意是否有资金在明日CPI公布前提前建仓而引发的破位行情。
  • 国债收益率的稳定性:密切观察美国国债收益率在上周五大幅飙升后的表现。若收益率继续维持盘整或出现微幅回调,将直接决定美元指数是否能成功死守 100.00 这一关键心理大关。
  • 欧元与英镑的韧性:重点关注在欧洲和美国正规交易时段内,欧元兑美元能否成功捍卫 1.1500 的核心关键支撑,以及英镑兑美元的反弹是否会在上方的 1.3380 – 1.3400 阻力带前戛然而止。

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