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油价飙升、非农引发滞胀担忧;美元强势主导市场

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2026年3月9日

全球市场在新一周开局即承受巨大压力。上周末短暂出现的市场平静已经完全消失,取而代之的是一场充满风险的宏观经济“毒性组合”。

上周五备受关注的美国非农就业报告为市场带来了严峻现实:劳动力市场明显走弱,这让美联储未来的政策路径变得更加复杂。与此同时,由美伊冲突推动的原油价格再度飙升,使市场重新燃起对“滞胀”的担忧情绪。两者叠加,导致全球股市大幅抛售,并推动美元全面走强。

美伊紧张局势:战争溢价持续推高油价

上周美国海军护航消息曾令能源市场短暂降温,但这种平静并未持续太久。随着周末期间美国、以色列与伊朗之间没有出现任何实质性的外交缓和,反而出现进一步升级,中东冲突可能长期化的现实再次回到市场视野。

市场正迅速将地缘政治风险溢价重新计入油价。霍尔木兹海峡可能被封锁以及能源基础设施遭突袭的风险,使得做空能源市场变得极其危险。

USOUSD,H4 图 | Ultima Markets MT5

USOUSD,H4 图 | Ultima Markets MT5

WTI 原油(USOUSD)在周一再度跳空高开,突破了上周后期的盘整区间,开盘后迅速获得强劲买盘。

从技术面来看,目前WTI缺乏明确的历史参考区间,100美元心理关口以及93美元缺口位置成为当前主要关注的支撑区域。

短期走势仍明显偏多;如果地缘政治风险持续恶化,油价可能迅速冲击更高水平。但市场已进入超买区域,随时可能出现回调。交易者需要保持谨慎,不过目前策略仍倾向于逢低买入

非农冲击:滞胀风险的“双重打击”

在上周五的非农数据公布后,华尔街仍在消化冲击。就业数据为当前市场前景再添阴霾,因为能源价格飙升本已推高通胀担忧。

关键数据:

  • 美国2月非农就业人数:-92,000
  • 失业率:上升至4.4%

劳动力市场收缩与油价上涨(推高整体通胀)叠加,形成了美国经济面临的最糟糕情景之一。市场正直面“滞胀”风险——能源成本推高价格,而疲弱的就业市场将拖累经济增长。

美元影响:在非农数据公布后,美元最初出现下跌;但在当前环境下,避险需求与美联储难以快速降息的现实相互作用,资金正加速流入美元。

USDX,H4 图 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H4 图 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指数周一跳空高开,避险需求占据主导。随着99.30阻力位被突破,如果美元能在短期内守住该水平,上行测试100.00心理关口的概率将明显增加。

美股技术前景:空头重新掌控市场

上周美国股指短暂出现的反弹已经被完全抹去。在通胀压力限制美联储政策空间、全球市场情绪转弱的背景下,美股正面临更深层次调整的风险。

SP500,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

SP500,日线图 | Ultima Markets MT5

标普500指数目前明显走弱,已重新跌破6700关键枢轴位,表明空头正重新掌控美股市场。

若指数持续在该水平下方运行,可能意味着技术面出现严重破位,并打开进一步下跌空间,目标或指向6500心理关口。短期内,200日均线将成为重要支撑。

整体来看,包括纳斯达克100与道琼斯指数在内的主要美股指数前景仍然充满不确定性。

今日市场关注重点

1. 战争相关消息 & 霍尔木兹海峡(全天)

由于周一宏观经济数据基本空白,市场走势将完全受中东局势主导。任何关于能源设施袭击、外交干预或霍尔木兹海峡封锁的突发消息,都可能迅速引发原油、黄金和美元的剧烈波动。交易需格外谨慎。

2. 非农后的市场重新布局(美盘时段)

机构投资者将在美股现金交易时段持续消化上周五-9.2万的就业数据冲击。需要重点观察: 美元的避险买盘是否能够持续,还是在周末跳空上涨后出现获利回吐。

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