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就业数据喜忧参半,鹰派现实冲击股市

每日市场洞察 – 2025 年 11 月 21 日 | 由 Ultima Markets 提供

昨日的市场交易中,原本的风险偏好上涨行情迅速瓦解。市场在面对 Nvidia(英伟达)亮眼财报 与 美联储愈发鹰派的政策立场 时,被迫重新评估风险。非农报告后的市场反应进一步扭转情绪,使全球股市普遍走低,其中以纳斯达克跌幅最深,反映投资者快速撤离高风险资产。

美国劳动力市场:对美联储而言是“混合信号”

这份因政府关门而延迟发布的 9 月非农就业报告,是近期第一份关键经济数据,对市场与政策判断具有明显影响:

  • 9 月新增就业 11.9 万人,远高于市场预期的 5 万人,初步显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。
  • 但报告也显示潜在疲软:失业率升至 4.4%,且前几个月的就业增幅被下修,呼应美联储多次提到的 就业市场正在降温。

政策影响:降息预期急速降温

强于预期的就业增幅加上美联储官员持续鹰派表态,使市场对节日前降息的预期大幅下降。

目前市场仅定价 12 月降息概率为 27%。在就业增长尚未显著放缓的情况下,美联储 没有迫切理由加速宽松节奏。

风险规避情绪:“高利率更久”

市场焦点已从政治因素转向货币政策的结构性现实:高利率将持续更长时间。

尽管英伟达公布亮眼业绩并给予强劲指引,但这并不足以抵挡美联储鹰派立场对风险偏好的压制。纳斯达克迅速反转,说明 仅靠企业盈利亮点,难以对抗高利率环境的估值压力。

科技股的急跌再次确认:高估值、高成长板块是“高利率更久”风险下最脆弱的一环。

熊市迹象?

风险偏好崩落不仅体现在股市,也明显扩散到 投机性资产。

加密货币持续承压,比特币跌破 90,000 美元,技术面破位与基本面恶化让市场开始讨论一个关键问题:更深层的风险资产“熊市阶段”是否正在启动?

S&P 500,日线图|Ultima Markets MT5

S&P 500,日线图|Ultima Markets MT5

激烈抛售将主要指数压低至关键支撑下方,标普 500 指数跌回 50 日均线之下,技术上确认近几周的下行动能。

结构性脆弱性正在增强:市场目前高度敏感,任何负面数据都可能引发进一步深度调整。若美国经济的潜在疲弱(如失业率上升)进一步恶化,股市可能进入一个更漫长的修正期,甚至是 熊市格局

BTCUSD,日线图|Ultima Markets MT5

BTCUSD,日线图|Ultima Markets MT5

与此同时,比特币跌破 90,000–88,000 关键支撑区,说明在当前环境下 高 Beta 风险资产压力巨大。动能依旧疲弱,比特币大概率 继续停留在 90,000 下方,甚至有可能回测 4 月低点附近的 78,000。

每日展望总结

今日整体市场情绪偏谨慎。非农新增 11.9 万人 带来的韧性信号,使市场更确信美联储 短期内“不急着降息”。

近期焦点转向今日发布的 S&P Global PMI 数据,以进一步评估商业活动的健康状况。而下一项关键催化剂将是美国 CPI 的回归——市场急需这份数据来判断未来的宽松路径。

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