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黄金vs债券:法国政局大垮台下,避险资产大洗牌时代正在到来

摘要:法国的政治动荡正迅速演变为一场深刻的财政信誉危机,其连锁反应已远超国界,直接冲击着全球长期债券市场脆弱的神经。未来黄金、大宗商品以及与宏观经济相对脱敏的核心科技股,可能成为对冲财政和通胀风险的新工具。

原创声明:Ultima Markets

作者:Elon Gu

法国的政治僵局正成为一场全球长期债券风暴的缩影,这场危机正深刻地重塑着全球资产的风险定价。

本周,法国总统马克龙任命其盟友、国防部长塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼为新任总理,这已是马克龙第二任期内的第五位总理。

他的前任在上周因试图推行不受欢迎的预算削减计划,未能在议会赢得信任投票而被迫辞职。财政政策不再紧缩的预期一度提振法国CAC 40股指反弹上行。

(法国CAC 40指数4小时图,来源Ultima Markets MT5)

(法国CAC 40指数4小时图,来源Ultima Markets MT5)

但Ultima Markets需要提醒投资者,下一个关键节点是本周五,届时评级机构惠誉将更新对法国的债务评级,任何负面行动都可能进一步推高法国的融资成本,从而打压股市。

全球长债风暴缩影

法国的财政困境并非孤例,而是全球长债风暴的一个缩影。

  • 在英国,市场对其债务可持续性的担忧已导致长债被猛烈抛售,借贷成本逼近2000年以来新高。
  • 而在日本,债务偿付支出已占国家预算的巨大比例,其高达240%的债务/GDP比率,叠加结构性需求不足,使得超长期日债面临巨大风险。

这些发达经济体正普遍进入一个新的“财政主导”时期。

政府倾向于依赖财政赤字刺激增长,这迫使央行在高债务约束下维持低利率。其结果是,短端利率被政策锚定,但通胀预期难以抑制,市场只能通过长端利率飙升和本币贬值来进行再定价,形成“赤字—通胀—利率—更高赤字”的恶性循环。

债券持有人需要的是对通胀和偿付能力的风险溢价,而非更多的财政刺激。

九月魔咒与结构性抛压

当前全球长债市场的抛售,也与季节性及结构性因素有关。

据统计,在过去十年中,期限超过10年的全球政府债券在9月份的中位数损失达2%,是全年表现最差的月份。

更深层次的结构性变化来自欧洲。

荷兰规模近2万亿欧元的养老金体系改革,正在重塑市场格局。新体系要求减少对长久期对冲工具的需求,并将更多资金配置于股票等风险资产。

鉴于荷兰养老金持有近3000亿欧元的欧洲债券,这一欧洲长债主要买家的退场,无疑对未来需求构成了实质性利空,也推动了德法30年期国债收益率升至多年高点。

投资者何去何从?

在全球宽财政成为主旋律、长债风险持续累积的背景下,Ultima Markets认为投资者需要重新审视其资产配置策略:

  • 收益率曲线持续承压:在“财政主导”模式下,短端利率受央行约束,而长端利率因风险溢价居高不下,收益率曲线将持续陡峭化。对于债券投资者而言,单纯持有长债的风险剧增,票息策略或成为更优选择。
  • 全球货币波动性上升:部分债务负担沉重的国家,可能试图通过本币贬值来稀释债务存量,这将加剧全球外汇市场的波动性。
  • 避险资产的更迭:随着主权债券的避险属性不断削弱,其在资产配置中的传统角色正受到挑战。黄金、大宗商品以及与宏观经济相对脱敏的核心科技股,可能成为对冲财政和通胀风险的新工具。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯,仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的精确度,及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失(包括但不限于任何盈利的损失)负责。 

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