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FOMC 会议纪要揭示“深度分歧”:美联储或在 2026 年初暂停行动

Ultima Markets 每日市场洞察 – 2025年12月31日

昨日公布的 12 月 FOMC 会议纪要,给市场此前热烈的“降息派对”泼了一盆冷水。纪要显示,美联储内部的立场远比市场预期更为分歧且谨慎,这意味着 2026 年的降息路径可能比当前定价更慢、更曲折。

FOMC 会议纪要回顾:“鹰派式降息”

12 月会议纪要的核心关键词是不确定性偏鹰。尽管美联储已实施降息,但内部讨论相当激烈,决策可谓“势均力敌”。

  • 分歧明显:此次降息并非一致通过。纪要显示罕见的 9–3 投票结果,委员在“关注劳动力走弱的鸽派”与“担忧通胀粘性的鹰派”之间存在深度分歧。
  • “暂停”信号:纪要中最关键的一点是,“部分与会者”认为,在 12 月降息之后,可能有必要在一段时间内维持利率区间不变,以评估后续数据。
  • 市场解读:这是一种典型的“鹰派式降息”。美联储正在释放信号:自动化的宽松周期已经结束,2026 年是否继续降息将严格依赖数据表现,与市场此前押注 1 月或 3 月继续降息的激进预期形成反差。

美元:或已形成阶段性底部

会议纪要偏鹰的基调为持续走弱的美元提供了支撑。随着“暂停降息”的可能性浮现,美元获得稳定理由,昨日已出现反弹迹象。

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

USDX,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

美元指数在 97.5 – 97.8 区域附近获得支撑。若短期内有效突破该区间,可能意味着阶段性底部已经形成。

  • 上行方面:若“暂停”叙事持续发酵,且市场流动性逐步回归,美元有望反弹至 98.40,甚至挑战更高阻力区。
  • 下行方面97.5 – 97.8 仍是关键“分水岭”,只有持续跌破该区间,美元的中期空头趋势才会重新确立。

美股:理性回归

美股三大指数连续第三个交易日收低,标普 500 与纳指的回落,更多源于对年内强势板块(科技 / AI)的获利了结,而非恐慌性抛售。

“轻松赚钱”的情绪正在让位于谨慎态度。会议纪要中,美联储对股市大幅上涨表达了担忧,指出过度宽松的金融环境可能削弱通胀控制成果。暗示降息不会来得那么快,通常并非风险资产的利好信号。

不过,目前并未出现系统性恐慌迹象。科技板块相对疲弱,但能源与价值板块表现更具韧性,显示市场正在轮动而非全面避险。同时,近期回调也受到假期流动性偏低的放大效应影响。主要指数的关键技术支撑仍然完好,暂未发出明确的风险警报,但值得持续关注。

黄金(XAU/USD):反弹受限

黄金正处于多空拉锯之中。尽管中长期多头结构依然存在,但美元企稳以及美联储可能暂停降息,正在限制金价的上行动能,形成短期压力。

XAU/USD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

XAU/USD,H2 图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面看,金价已跌破 4,4004,380 等关键心理关口(此前的历史高点),显示下行压力上升,短期内更可能进入整理,甚至不排除进一步回调的风险。

若多头希望重新掌控局面,金价需重新站稳 4,400,才能重燃上行动能。

今日关注重点(2025 年最后一个交易日)

在 2025 年收官之际,市场关注以下最后的催化因素:

  • 中国制造业 PMI:作为全球最大的大宗商品消费国,中国数据的任何企稳信号,都将为 2026 年的铜与白银定下基调。
  • 美国市场流动性提醒:美债市场今日将于美东时间 14:00 提前收市。流动性预计进一步下降,需高度警惕美股尾盘时段点差扩大。
  • 最后一小时风险:重点关注美东时间 15:00–16:00,基金经理进行年终资产估值与仓位调整,价格波动可能异常剧烈。

最后,Ultima Markets 祝您新年快乐,期待在 2026 年与您一同迎接新的市场挑战与机遇。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

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