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12月降息预期飙升;科技板块不安仍限制风险情绪

每日市场展望 – 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 由 Ultima Market 提供

今日市场的核心主题,是科技板块深度估值担忧与上周五美联储释放的轻微鸽派信号之间的拉扯,这些信号正试图为风险资产市场提供支撑。

政策转向:鸽派信号推升 12 月降息预期

鹰派 FOMC 会议纪要与强劲非农报告公布后,美联储政策被大幅重新定价,但上周多位官员的最新表态改变了市场走向。

包括纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在内的多名关键官员给出更为宽松的观点,暗示若通胀继续下降,美联储“仍有降息空间”。

这一鸽派信号推动市场对 12 月降息 25bps 的概率大幅回升,从先前的约 30% 跃升至当前的约 70%。

美元影响

直接的市场反应是美元指数承压,目前徘徊在关键的 100.00 水平附近。

USDX,H4 图表 | Ultima Market MT5

USDX,H4 图表 | Ultima Market MT5

尽管仍企稳在 100.00 附近,但美元的短线上行倾向正受到挑战。缺乏突破 100–100.30 阻力区的动能,对多头而言是一个隐忧,尤其是在市场大幅上调 12 月降息预期的背景下。

美元能否重新站稳并维持在 100.00 之上,将成为下一步走势的关键。当前技术阻力仍落在 100.00–100.30 区间,而美元下一步方向仍有待确认。

通胀数据不确定性

随着政府停摆结束,市场开始关注 12 月 FOMC 会议前的最后几项延迟数据。

但劳工统计局(BLS)已正式取消 10 月 CPI 的发布,原因是停摆期间数据收集不完整。

因此,下一次官方通胀数据将是 11 月 CPI——发布时间为 12 月 18 日,也就是 FOMC 会议之后。

这意味着市场在“信息真空”中运行。当前焦点转向将于 11 月 25 日(周二)公布的 9 月 PPI。

PPI 反映批发端通胀趋势,通常领先 CPI。若数据疲软,将强化鸽派预期,进一步支撑 12 月降息概率维持在 70%。

科技板块不安情绪未消散

尽管上周的鸽派变化缓和了股市下跌的力度,但估值与技术面压力仍主导投资者情绪。

  • 英伟达影响:英伟达上周虽公布亮眼财报及积极指引,但仍难消除整体估值疑虑。纳斯达克因前期急跌,其技术走势依然脆弱。
  • AI/科技不确定性:市场仍在讨论庞大的 AI 基建支出是否真的能转化为未来营收增长,这种不确定性促使交易员保持防御姿态,限制科技股真正反弹。
NAS100,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

NAS100,日线图 | Ultima Market MT5

该指数在上周大幅波动后尝试进入整固阶段。关键关注点是守住 24,000 支撑区,预计该区域将为指数提供短线支撑。

尽管英伟达的前景指引提供一定基本面支持,但除非估值压力显著缓解,否则指数难以持续向历史高位靠拢。

总体展望仍偏向中性至谨慎偏空。24,000–25,000 区间是短期主要关注范围,一旦突破区间,将决定下一阶段方向。

每日市场总结

对于周一市场,整体预期将相对平静,延续上周五行情的影响。

今日的主要事件是多位欧洲央行官员的讲话,包括行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德。市场将寻求有关欧元区经济前景、通胀走势与德国政治不稳定性的线索。

尽管如此,欧洲央行大概率仍维持“观望”立场,继续强调政策依赖数据。任何与美联储观点不一致的语气,都可能在当前预期转换中被市场放大。

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