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亚马逊股价闪崩:是陷阱还是良机?

亚马逊股价近期从 250 美元回调至 210 美元,估值被降至七大科技巨头中的相对低位。本次股价波动与公司宣布的2000亿美元资本支出计划密切相关。市场当前正密切关注这一调整是短期风险释放信号还是入场良机?

财报数据与市场反应

亚马逊最新财报在市场引发震荡,两个跳空缺口见证了资金的流出。从数据来看,四季度营收近 2134 亿美元超预期,关键的AWS云业务收入 355.8 亿美元强于预期,但每股收益 1.95 美元略低于预期的 1.97 美元。

真正引发市场的关键因素是:亚马逊宣布 2026 年将投入 2000 亿美元资本支出——这一数字较 2025 年增长 50%,远高于华尔街预期的 1461 亿美元。消息公布后,股价盘后跳空约 9%,随后连续下调。

AI 泡沫还是算力奇点?

当前市场出现了罕见的认知分歧。

看空阵营的逻辑:华尔街对巨额 AI 资本表示担忧,微软、Meta、谷歌等科技巨头只要提高 AI 投入就遭到抛售。分析师担忧,投资回报不确定、短期现金流承压、AI 泡沫可能破裂。这或许是在为过热的科技股降温,防范系统性风险。

看多阵营的反击:数据揭示了截然不同的真相。AWS积压订单高达 2440 亿美元,年增长 40%,相当于现有年收入的两倍多。这不是需求不足,而是极度的供给短缺。CEO 直言:”算力一上线就立刻变现”。

更关键的战略武器是亚马逊自研 Trainium 和 Inferentia 芯片,性价比比英伟达同级产品高出 40-50%,正在摆脱”英伟达税”。同时提前布局核电站供电数据中心,解决AI发展的能源瓶颈。这些投资指向一个目标——建立算力时代的垄断地位。

电商业务的稳健与估值修复

市场聚焦 AI 时,容易忽略亚马逊电商业务的蜕变。通过区域化物流改革,北美零售利润率逆势扩张至 9%,已变成稳定现金流来源,而这项业务正在供养昂贵的 AI 战争。

亚马逊的前瞻市盈率从 28+ 降至 25.45,在七大科技巨头中处于中低位区间。

交易关键价格区间

技术面呈现两个潜在支撑位:

  • 主要支撑:200 美元为重要心理关口
  • 强支撑:194 美元为跳空缺口下边缘,技术买盘可能介入

反之,如果股价未能突破短期阻力位(210-212美元),短期内股价由于资本支出担忧或将继续承压。

资料来源

https://ir.aboutamazon.com/quarterly-results/default.aspx https://www.tradingview.com/chart/q8PXQIRk/

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