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本周加拿大CPI和周五的美国核心PCE将共同勾勒北美地区的通胀面貌,为两大央行的政策路径提供依据。周三的新西兰联储决议预计将“按兵不动”,但其政策声明可能为纽元提供方向。
加拿大1月CPI月率
周一加拿大公布1月通胀数据,这是观察加央行后续政策走向的关键。重点关注本次月率数据能否进一步确认通胀稳步下行的趋势。数据若低于预期,可能强化市场对加拿大央行维持宽松立场的预期,从而给加元带来压力。

美国1月零售销售月率
周二公布的数据将揭示在经历年末购物季后,美国经济的核心引擎,消费是否依然坚韧。数据若意外强劲,可能短暂提振美元;若表现疲软,则会加剧市场对美国经济动能减弱的担忧。

新西兰联储利率决议
市场普遍预期本周三新西兰联储将维持利率不变。焦点在于央行对经济前景和通胀的评估,以及对未来降息路径的任何暗示。决议声明和利率前瞻指引的鹰鸽倾向。例如,对进一步降息持开放态度与否,将直接影响纽元走势。

美国至2月14日当周初请失业金人数
周四美国将公布上周初次申请失业金人数,作为观察美国劳动力市场状况的高频领先指标。近期数据保持相对稳定,该数据的短期波动能提前预示就业市场是否开始降温。

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