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本周澳联储、英央行及欧央行决议将展现主要经济体在抗通胀与稳增长间的权衡。而贯穿全周的美国数据,尤其是周三的“小非农”与服务业主力指标,以及周五的“非农大戏”,将为美国经济健康度与美联储后续决策提供最直接的证据。
澳联储利率决议
市场普遍预期周二澳联储利率决议将维持3.60%不变。近期央行曾表示因“通胀持续高企”,对降息持谨慎态度。若声明中流露出任何对通胀顽固性的新担忧,可能为澳元提供支撑;反之,若提及经济下行风险,则可能被视为鸽派信号。

英国央行利率决议
周四英国央行公布最新利率决定,市场同样预期其将维持利率不变。决议的关键在于行长贝利及其委员会如何平衡疲软的通胀数据与依然强劲的薪资增长,以及他们是否会为年中降息打开明确窗口。任何鸽派暗示都可能对英镑构成压力。

欧洲央行利率决议
周四同日,欧央行同样公布利率决定。市场预测欧央行将连续第五次维持不变。尽管通胀接近目标,但欧央行管委表示未来几个月“很难找到调整利率的理由”。因此,拉加德对通胀“最后一英里”的评估以及政策转向的门槛,将成为影响欧元走势的关键。

美国1月非农就业报告
周五非农报告将是评估美国经济韧性与美联储政策节奏的关键。若就业增长稳健但不火爆、薪资压力温和,将可能支撑风险资产。反之,若薪资增长强劲,可能重燃通胀担忧。这份报告将为美联储未来的利率路径提供至关重要的证据。

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