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新年首周“数据风暴”,非农数据定乾坤

新年第一周,市场将迅速从假期模式切换至“数据驱动”模式,迎来美国就业和服务业数据。这些数据为判断2026年美联储降息节奏提供首个关键依据。欧英的服务业PMI也将为两大央行的政策路径提供线索。

美国12月ISM制造业PMI

周一公布的ISM制造业PMI衡量美国制造业景气度的关键指标。11月该指数为48.2,已连续九个月处于收缩区间(低于50荣枯线),表明制造业持续低迷。12月需关注新订单、产出等分项,以及制造业就业指数能否止跌。

欧元区12月服务业PMI终值

周二数据终值将确认服务业扩张的韧性。12月初值显示,尽管综合PMI放缓至51.9,但服务业PMI仍保持在52.6的扩张水平,是经济的“压舱石”。市场将关注服务业输入成本与售价的上涨情况(12月已创九个月新高),这关系着通胀黏性及欧央行政策。

美国12月ISM非制造业PMI

周三公布ISM非制造业PMI,服务业占美国经济大头,该指数是判断经济动能的重中之重。需密切关注其商业活动和就业分项。在流动性减少的年初,任何意外走弱都可能引发市场较大波动。

美国12月非农就业报告

这是新年第一周的压轴事件和绝对焦点。重点关注三大核心:新增就业人数是否从11月的强劲增长回归至更温和的水平。失业率能否稳定在低位(11月为4.1%)。平均时薪增速能否保持温和,这是影响通胀前景的关键。

数据过强(尤其薪资)可能重燃对通胀和紧缩的担忧,打压风险资产;数据过弱则会引发衰退恐慌,并可能强化市场对美联储更快降息的预期。其结果将直接为美元、美股及全球资产在新年伊始定下基调。

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