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新年货币政策定调周,两大央行及两大通胀数据齐发

本周以美联储2025年首次利率决议为核心,辅以加拿大央行决议及美国两大关键通胀数据(PCE和PPI),共同为新年首月的全球货币政策路径一锤定音。

美国1月达拉斯联储商业活动指数

周一公布的该数据是衡量得克萨斯州制造业状况的高频指标,可作为美国工业部门动能的参考。在ISM制造业指数持续低迷的宏观背景下,这份反映德州制造业状况的区域数据,将提供关于全美制造业动能的增量信号。

加拿大央行利率决议

周三加拿大央行将举行2026年首次议息会议。市场普遍预期将维持利率不变。核心在于其政策声明的措辞,是否会因通胀数据变化而调整对未来降息时点的前瞻指引。若央行措辞偏向鸽派,暗示仍可能降息,加元可能承压。

美联储利率决议 

美联储利率决议是本周的绝对核心事件。鉴于其在12月刚刚降息并释放“鹰派暂停”信号,本次会议几乎100%确定会维持利率不变。所有焦点都将集中在鲍威尔的新闻发布会,以寻找其对后续利率路径、经济数据观察重点以及关于领导层过渡可能影响的任何暗示。

美国12月核心PCE

周四美国公布美联储最青睐的PCE通胀指标,重要性极高。数据将直接验证通胀是否如鲍威尔所言“扣除关税因素后在2%低位”,为美联储的观望立场提供依据。

美国12月PPI年率

美国周五将公布12月PPI数据。在PCE数据之后,PPI作为上游通胀指标,将为未来消费物价的走向提供额外线索。美国PPI数据若与PCE趋势一致,将巩固市场对通胀的判断。

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