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套利交易存在空间,英镑兑澳元仍需警惕空头

今日重点关注品种英镑兑澳元。

基本面上,财经数据上今日没有值得关注的,影响行情的因素更多是当前市场情绪。英澳之间的货币政策差异短期主导两国之间的货币汇率。

(英央行政策利率蓝线vs澳联储政策利率黑线)

英国央行在上调基准利率25基点后,达到2008年以来最高的水平,升至5.25%。同时澳联储当前是4.1%,利差意味着套息交易存在空间。但由于澳元作为商品货币,天生容易受大宗商品价格的影响。此外市场对于澳联储未来峰值利率看涨,也将导致对于澳元的潜在看多。

技术面上,英镑兑澳元日线周期上结构呈现潜在的沃尔夫浪结构。但是目前裸K结构没有显示明确的看跌结构。

(英镑兑澳元日线周期,来源Ultima Markets MT4)

日线裸K上看甚至有一定概率继续上冲——8月1日的行情在33日均线上止跌反弹,形成阳包阴,随后5日均线上汇价震荡持续了三天止跌出现三下影线。但需要警惕,随机震荡指标已经纠缠,上方阻力线也不远,多头入场后需要随时关注转向。

(英镑兑澳元1小时周期,来源Ultima Markets MT4)

英镑兑澳元1小时上行情在震荡三天后形成了明确的矩形区间,昨日的突破暗示短期多头更占优。但是从ATR组合指标来看,行情突破是否有效存疑,技术角度来看目前英镑兑澳元看多不做多,更多关注空头信号的出现。

(英镑兑澳元1小时周期图,来源Ultima Markets MT4)

根据Ultima Markets MT4中的pivot指标,当日中枢价位1.94141,

1.94141之上看涨,第一目标1.94943,第二目标1.95451

1.94141之下看跌,第一目标1.93626,第二目标1.92806

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