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上周五,失业率上升反映了家庭就业数据的疲软。用来衡量失业率的小型且波动较大的家庭调查显示,就业人数减少了35.5万人。相比之下,11月非农就业人数增加了22.7万人,高于10月经上调后增加的3.6万人(原先报告为1.2万人)。因此,美元指数上涨0.23%,收于105.97。

(美元指数日线图,来源:Trading View)
过去四份报告中,月均就业增长逐渐降至15万以下,这一水平被许多经济学家认为不足以跟上不断增长的人口需求。

(美国非农就业数据,来源:LSEG)
非农就业数据发布后,美国利率期货显示美联储在本月晚些时候的政策会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至85%,高于报告发布前的约70%,据LSEG计算。与此同时,暂停降息的可能性从30%降至15%。
预计美联储将继续降息25个基点,以将货币政策从紧缩转向中性。然而,预计美联储将暗示放缓降息步伐,1月FOMC会议暂停进一步决策的可能性显得更加明确。
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