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澳大利亚最新公布的经济数据——包括弱于预期的GDP增速以及回升的月度通胀——进一步巩固市场对澳洲央行(RBA)将维持长期按兵不动的预期。市场普遍认为,RBA最早也要到2026年下半年才可能开始降息。
GDP疲弱显示消费动能放缓
+0.4%的环比增速低于市场一致预期,显示澳洲消费者动能持续减弱。家庭消费进一步放缓,反映在高借贷成本与疲弱的实际收入环境下,支出依然受压。
按理来说,经济增长放缓通常会强化降息理由,但仅凭这份疲弱的GDP数据,仍不足以促使RBA改变立场。
月度CPI指标意外上升至 3.8%,显示通胀仍然顽固偏高。尤其是服务业通胀持续强劲,这是央行最担忧的部分。
由于通胀依然远高于2–3%的目标区间,RBA的首要任务仍然是维持紧缩环境,直到通胀出现更清晰的回落迹象。通胀回升的事实远比GDP走弱更具政策影响力。
市场对降息时间的定价已明显后移:
资金市场全面定价“更高、更久”的利率环境——这与美国市场形成鲜明对比,美联储12月降息的概率接近90%。
部分交易员甚至押注“尾部风险”:若通胀持续维持在3.8%以上,RBA存在再次加息的可能性,但这并不是当前的基准情景。
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