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日本央行(BoJ)最新一次政策会议的纪要显示,政策制定者正在逐步接近进一步正常化利率的决定,但语气依然谨慎。部分委员提出了“加息的条件”,而行长植田和男则强调需耐心等待数据确认趋势。
主要政策要点
纪要再次显示BoJ内部存在分歧。尽管鹰派倾向有所显现,但整体“观望”谨慎语气仍占主导,纪要公布后持续给日元施压,市场将其解读为“仍未行动”。
日元在纪要公布后走弱
上周曾上涨的日元在纪要发布后回吐涨幅。市场解读缺乏明确加息时间表及坚定立场为降低预期信号。USD/JPY在纪要公布后升破153.00关键水平。
接下来需关注
植田行长的评论——强调需更多数据确认持续工资增长,并指出“美国加征关税带来的潜在阻力”——为市场提供了路线图。12月18-19日BoJ会议前需关注的关键数据与事件包括:
最新数据显示,尽管名义工资增长,但受高通胀影响,实际工资连续第九个月下降。这一持续下滑支持BoJ内部谨慎派立场,使行长短期内难以采取行动。
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