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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website过去一个月内,日元迎来了最强劲的一周表现,主要受市场对日本央行(BOJ)下周加息预期的推动,同时也给美元带来压力,尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普可能重返白宫的背景下。目前在这个星期,美元兑日元汇率已下跌1.45%。
(美元/日元价格走势图,来源:Trading View)
市场重点关注日本央行对工资和通胀的立场。此前,日本央行行长上田和夫因对工资增长和国内通胀的不确定性表示担忧,上月决定暂缓加息。
日本央行副行长氷見野良三周二表示,今年的工资增长可能会保持强劲。次日,上田也表达了相似的乐观情绪,表明日本正稳步迈向实现持久通胀目标的方向。两位官员均表示,日本央行将在下周讨论是否加息,并显示出很大可能性。
与此同时,多家企业预计将在即将于3月启动的年度工会谈判中连续第三年提供大幅加薪。日本央行的地区分行经理也指出,工资上涨已蔓延至各行业和公司规模,这满足了加息的关键前提条件。
除非受到外部冲击的影响,日本央行预计将在下周将利率上调至0.5%。不过,如果上田在加息后发表鸽派言论降低市场预期,日元的强势可能不会持续太久。
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