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周一,国家统计局将英国第三季度GDP增长率从此前报告的0.1%下调至0.0%,显示出在首相基尔·斯塔默政府执政的前三个月内,英国经济完全未能增长。这突显了更广泛的经济放缓,笼罩着他执政初期的局势。

(英国第三季度GDP环比增长,来源:国家统计局)
国家统计局还将第二季度的增长率从0.5%下调至0.4%。自7月初上任以来,斯塔默及财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯已对经济的脆弱性发出警告。在10月30日的预算案中,他们对企业实施了税收增加,尽管此举引发了雇主们的担忧。经济学家指出,这种谨慎可能形成了自我强化效应,进一步压制了经济增长势头。周三的数据暗示今年下半年经济增长停滞不前。
英格兰银行上周预测第四季度不会出现经济增长,但由于通胀压力仍然存在,维持利率不变。GDP修订部分反映了出口需求疲软,尽管国内消费支出和企业投资保持稳定。尽管经济勉强避开了技术性衰退(即连续两个季度萎缩),但数据增加了英格兰银行可能在2025年初降息的可能性。
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