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On Fundamentals, BoE raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps yesterday, reaching the highest level since 2008. Rising interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, meaning more pressure on many homeowners. The UK continues to be on the edge of recession. Separately, RBA’s monetary report suggests suspending interest rate hikes, however, leaves room for another 15-bps raise.
BoE’s monetary policy was significantly more hawkish than RBA’s, resulting in an appreciation of GBP/AUD since February 2023. However, BoE’s policy no longer brought bullish sentiment on the pound but worries on the British outlook. At present , the market is certian on the future peak interest rate of the RBA, which will lead to a potential bullishness on the Australian dollar .
Technically speaking, the GBP/AUD daily cycle presents a potential Wolf Wave structure, but the price action structure does not display a clear bearish signal at moment.
(GBP/AUD daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)
The Stochastic Oscillator shows no dead cross on the daily cycle. Please be aware of GBP/JPY’s next bullish trend.
(4-hour GBP/AUD cycle, Ultima Markets MT4 )
The 4-hour Elliott Wave structure of GBP/AUD suggests that it may be in a double-saw-tooth rebound phase. After the market confirms the bearish trend, it is possible to pave a sharp downward path.
(1-hour GBP/AUD cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)
On 1-hour cycle of GBP/AUD, a turning point emerged. The exchange rate fell rapidly and was close to the previous breakthrough price. On August 2, the price action formed a potential head-and-shoulders structure. If it falls below the 1.9338 neckline, the probability of going bearish will increase.
(1- hour GBP/AUD cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)
According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4 , the central price of the day is 1.94039 ,
Bullish above 1.94039, the first target is 1.94667, and the second is 1.95328.
Bearish below 1.94039, the first target is 1.93373, and the second is 1.92745.
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